Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 80804.545254 85293.822642 89779.712936 94595.323084 99615.257417 104690.622391 110206.566751
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 73717.332754 80612.346245 87692.613257 95496.295892 103845.533697 112500.265875 122139.382347
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 68529.750036 77072.964562 86036.520225 96121.088863 107129.236525 118759.231478 131953.277270
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 64145.451445 73880.723138 84282.142054 96187.197864 109400.167588 123579.081038 139908.240653
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 61352.033984 72133.479507 83834.095822 97424.067079 112720.734805 129352.464926 148748.113769
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 57997.666904 69510.577335 82187.536145 97111.856939 114128.052376 132851.351402 154934.944563
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 56189.579613 68498.864788 82227.445367 98582.652631 117440.778552 138406.456739 163377.670646
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 54262.658788 67222.991541 81853.317589 99477.647118 120012.830124 143062.915878 170765.422811
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 52047.466705 65491.956689 80846.864773 99542.589675 121544.895358 146467.855475 176677.911630
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 49908.952728 63749.914172 79735.371252 99397.993190 122758.636137 149448.927036 182061.837398
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 48993.194545 63419.055787 80245.776580 101129.635538 126148.322776 154948.551414 190386.028782
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 48137.380786 63110.371948 80741.058096 102809.974616 129457.107933 160349.883952 198612.094588
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 46764.018830 62139.000542 80423.732818 103516.353695 131629.043060 164461.334845 205402.399486
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 45073.528190 60716.101679 79507.272820 103453.959929 132847.383875 167428.823037 210843.561381
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 43739.762690 59688.927668 79032.033536 103892.158453 134643.690449 171072.806047 217096.472743
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 42286.175938 58456.050990 78253.561252 103912.172115 135894.152757 174037.698215 222525.553630
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 41528.558888 58082.356390 78523.548502 105216.501496 138714.861682 178907.842137 230281.378960
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 40058.160931 56736.095265 77520.672781 104881.998193 139469.713053 181236.368558 234932.613071
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 39524.715939 56591.337234 78028.890660 106445.450373 142590.541318 186476.085911 243175.202982
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 38752.014070 56102.008644 78071.155768 107396.897380 144932.729299 190757.310220 250255.375524
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 37637.773202 55122.131280 77447.417036 107465.913786 146138.206769 193617.933713 255579.810774
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 36483.137054 54052.435133 76674.303694 107312.179308 147036.643045 196081.393152 260407.679701
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 36206.649264 54160.549974 77438.208187 109153.004126 150491.776457 201764.283673 269289.543713